Following our in-depth Q3 2024 Manhattan Market Update, where we examined shifting buyer sentiment and a stabilizing condo market, the Q4 2024 analysis builds on these trends with notable momentum in the ultra-luxury and entry-level segments. The resilience of Manhattan real estate was on full display, despite ongoing inventory challenges and elevated mortgage rates.
Market Overview
The Manhattan real estate market closed 2024 on a strong note, with increased buyer activity across multiple price points. Despite persistent inventory shortages and high mortgage rates, sales volume rose, signaling growing market confidence. Condo sales led the recovery, bolstered by demand for luxury properties, while entry-level buyers remained active despite affordability concerns. The tightening inventory remains a key challenge, yet sustained demand suggests continued price stability into early 2025.
Key Q4 2024 Metrics:
- Total sales volume: $4.99 billion, +13.5% YoY
- Median sales price: $1,100,000, +4.3% from Q3
- Average sales price: $2,072,769, +8.5% from Q3
- Inventory decline: Down 8.6% from Q3, down 14.3% YoY
- Average discount: 7%, unchanged from Q3
Sales Surge Amid Market Adjustments
Manhattan’s total apartment sales volume increased by 10.6% year-over-year, indicating renewed confidence among buyers. The median sales price landed at $1.1 million, reflecting a 3.5% decline from Q3 but a 2.7% increase from Q4 2023. Notably, the ultra-luxury segment saw a remarkable 58.3% growth in sales for properties priced at $20 million and above, driven by wealth transfers and a sustained appetite for high-end real estate.
Condos Outperform Co-ops
As we highlighted in our Q3 report, condos continued their dominance, with a 21.5% year-over-year increase in sales. The average condo price reached nearly $3 million, marking the highest level since 2018. This reflects the demand for modern, turnkey properties, especially from buyers less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations. Meanwhile, co-op sales grew just 2.8%, with a slight dip in average price.
Inventory Constraints Persist
One of the most pressing issues noted in both Q3 and Q4 was the tightening inventory. Active listings dropped 8.6% from last quarter and 14.3% from Q4 2023, intensifying competition among buyers. This shortage particularly affected the Upper West and Upper East Sides, which saw inventory declines of 14.8% and 11.7%, respectively. While new condo listings were up 15.6% year-over-year, the availability of co-ops dwindled significantly, with 34% fewer units hitting the market.
Key Submarket Insights
- Downtown Manhattan led in both condo and co-op sales, accounting for 47.8% of townhouse sales and boasting some of the highest price growth rates.
- Midtown East saw the largest increase in signed contracts (+13.0%), with its growing appeal evident in the 20.2% jump in price per square foot since last quarter.
- The entry-level segment ($500,000 or less) saw a 21.2% increase in transactions, reflecting sustained demand from first-time buyers and investors adjusting to market conditions.
Looking Ahead to 2025
Given the positive momentum in Q4, expectations for Q1 2025 remain optimistic. The 6% increase in signed contracts suggests a continued rise in sales activity, supported by a more stable economic outlook post-election and a shift in buyer psychology—many are moving forward despite uncertainties surrounding mortgage rates.
With Manhattan’s real estate market showcasing resilience and adaptability, 2025 could see further upward trends, especially if inventory constraints ease and interest rates stabilize.
For a deeper dive into last quarter’s insights, read our Q3 2024 report here. Stay tuned for our Q1 2025 analysis as we track the evolving landscape of Manhattan real estate.
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